Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Momentum indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Momentum indicators determine the strength or weakness of a trend as it progresses over time. Momentum is highest at the beginning of a trend and lowest at trend turning points. Any divergence of directions in price and momentum is a warning of weakness; if price extremes occur with weak momentum, it signals an end of movement in that direction. If momentum is trending strongly and prices are flat, it signals a potential change in price direction. (Example: Stochastic, MACD, RSI)

Introduction to Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework. If you think of the financial markets as a big clock, the fundamentals are the gears and springs that move the hands around the face. Anyone walking down the street can look at this clock and tell you what time it is now, but the fundamentalist can tell you how it came to be this time and more importantly, what time (or more precisely, what price) it will be in the future.

There is a tendency to pigeonhole traders into two distinct schools of market analysis - fundamental and technical. Indeed, the first question posed to you after you tell someone that you are a trader is generally "Are you a technician or a fundamentalist?" The reality is that it has become increasingly difficult to be a purist of either persuasion. Fundamentalists need to keep an eye on the various signals derived from the price action on charts, while few technicians can afford to completely ignore impending economic data, critical political decisions or the myriad of societal issues that influence prices.

Bearing in mind that the financial underpinnings of any country, trading bloc or multinational industry takes into account many factors, including social, political and economic influences, staying on top of an extremely fluid fundamental picture can be challenging. At the same time, you'll find that your knowledge and understanding of a dynamic global market will increase immeasurably as you delve further and further into the complexities and subtleties of the fundamentals of the markets.

Monday, December 29, 2008

A look at Economic Developments Around The World


A look at economic developments and activity in stock markets around the world Monday


British children's clothing retailer Adams Childrenswear Ltd. is on the brink of bankruptcy, a spokeswoman for the 75-year-old company said. Adams would be the latest in a series of big British retail brands to be hit by the economic turmoil -- 99-year-old general store Woolworths, tea and coffee merchant Whittard of Chelsea and music chain Zavvi already have been forced to file for administration. Meanwhile, Hometrack housing researchers said home prices fell by nearly 9 percent in 2008 and predicts they will fall further next year. And the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development predicted that employers will lay off at least 600,000 people in Britain next year, making 2009 the worst year for job cuts since 1991. The gloomy reports stoked expectations that the Bank of England will make further interest rate cuts next year, driving the pound to a record low of euro1.0203. The FTSE 100 gained 2.44 percent, or 102.76 points, to end at 4,319.35. Elsewhere in Europe, Germany's DAX closed up 1.63 percent, or 75.48, at 4,704.86 and France's CAC 40 closed 0.47 percent higher, or 14.51, at 3,130.71.

TOKYO -- Japanese stocks rose for a third straight session, lifted by hopes for mergers in the insurance and semiconductor sectors. The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average rose 7.65 points, or 0.1 percent, to 8,747.17 in thin year-end trading. Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group Holdings Inc. surged 8.3 percent to 2,885 yen after the Nikkei financial daily reported that Japan's No. 2 nonlife insurer was in negotiations to integrate operations with two smaller rivals. The new entity would be Japan's biggest nonlife insurer.

MOSCOW -- Russia's weakening ruble slid 1.5 percent on the MICEX foreign currency exchange to a new low against the Central Bank's euro-dollar basket, the third sharp drop in the national currency in just five days. It was down to 29.2 against the dollar -- a level that hasn't been seen since 2005 -- and 41.7 against the euro -- an all-time low. Russia's Central Bank set the official exchange rates for the dollar and euro in line with trading quotes; normally it does not allow the currency to lose more than 1 percent of its value in one day. However, the bank has already allowed 12 depreciations since Nov. 11, when the supervised slide began. The ruble has shed more than 20 percent of its value against the dollar since its high of 23.4 in early August. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that Russia's long-term economic goals would remain unchanged, with the government setting aside a massive package to prop up the economy. Putin said Russia's economy is expected to grow 6 percent this year -- in line with recent forecasts.

SHANGHAI, China -- U.S. car parts maker Delphi Corp. has suspended work at a factory in Suzhou due to shrinking demand amid the global economic slump, a media report and a staff member said. The factory west of Shanghai in the city of Suzhou makes compressors for General Motors Corp. China's own once-booming auto market is seeing sales fall from double-digit growth rates as demand cools. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.1 percent, or just 1.04 points, to 1,850.48. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index snapped a four-day losing streak in feather-light trade, adding 1 percent to 14,328.48.

BRASILIA, Brazil -- President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said new measures to help Brazil counter the effects of the global economic crisis will be announced by Jan. 20. Silva said the country is "strong economically" but will act immediately to keep the "perverse effects" of the crisis from affecting the nation. Brazil's benchmark Ibovespa index rose 0.5 percent to 37,060. Argentina's Merval index meanwhile gained 1.7 percent to close at 1,076, while Chile's IPSA rose 1 percent to 2,373 and Colombia's IGBC slid 0.5 percent to 7,523.


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